Hezbollah Claims Victory

Not only did they win, now they're bragging about it.  This has been predicted.  Among others David Bogner saw it coming and outlined the process in one of the best articles/posts on the recent Israel/Hezbollah conflict I've seen.  That article is a must-read.  Don't miss it.

Here's the formula, outlined on 16 July - near the beginning of the conflict:

President Lahoud of Lebanon, a big Hezbollah supporter and a close ally of Syria, has been shrieking non-stop to the UN Security Council for the past two days to get them to force Israel into a cease fire.

Clearly he has been reading his autographed copy of 'Military Success for Dummies Arab Despots' by the late Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt.  Ever since Nasser accidentally discovered the trick in '56, every subsequent Arab leader has stuck to his tried and true formula for military success:

1. Instigate a war. 
2. Once the war is well underway and you are in the process of having your ass handed to you... get a few world powers to force your western opponent into a cease fire. 
3. Whatever you do, don't surrender or submit to any terms dictated by your enemy.  That would ruin everything!  All you have to do is wait it out and eventually the world will become sickened at what is being done to your soldiers and civilian population... and will force a truce.
4. Once a truce has been called you can resume your intransigence (which probably caused the conflict in the first place), and even declare victory as your opponent leaves the field of battle.

This tactic has never failed.  Not once.

Comments

[treppenwitz]

I wish more than you can ever know that I had been wrong.